Benjamin Netanyahu may be facing one of the toughest political tests of his career, but conservative commentator Ben Shapiro believes the Israeli prime minister still has a strong chance of remaining in office. The latest election results have left Israel facing a complicated battle over who can assemble a governing coalition, with Netanyahu and opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot competing for political control.
Despite expectations that the opposition could make significant gains, the vote count has given Netanyahu a path to continue his long political career. Yet the outcome remains far from settled, and the next stage of negotiations could prove just as consequential as election day itself.
Netanyahu Leads, but the Numbers Tell a Complicated Story
With more than 90% of ballots counted on October 28, Netanyahu's bloc was projected to win 53 seats in Israel's 120-member Knesset, while Eisenkot's bloc was projected to secure 48. Arab-led parties were projected to hold 19 seats. Neither main bloc reached the 61 seats needed for a parliamentary majority.
The result leaves Netanyahu in a stronger position than some early exit polls suggested, but it does not guarantee another term. He could seek support from opposition lawmakers, pursue a broader unity government, or remain caretaker prime minister if coalition negotiations fail.
Shapiro argued that Netanyahu's position remained strong because several political scenarios could allow him to stay in office, including a new election or negotiations to form a coalition. That is his assessment, however, rather than a confirmed outcome.
Iran and Gaza Could Remain Central to Israeli Policy
Shapiro also argued that Netanyahu and Eisenkot share significant similarities on national security, particularly regarding Iran, Gaza, and Lebanon. Their differences, he suggested, concern domestic political questions as well as Netanyahu's leadership and legal troubles.
That distinction matters because a change in prime minister would not necessarily produce an immediate reversal of Israel's security strategy. Both leaders have military backgrounds, and the confrontation with Iran remains a major issue in Israeli politics.
However, disagreements over military-service exemptions for ultra-Orthodox communities, accountability for the October 7, 2023, security failures, and the future direction of the government could complicate any attempt to form a stable coalition.
The Real Battle Begins After Election Day
The election has exposed a divided political landscape in which neither Netanyahu nor Eisenkot can govern comfortably without additional parliamentary support. Arab-led parties could become influential in coalition negotiations, although cooperation with them remains politically contentious among several Jewish-led parties.
For Netanyahu, the immediate challenge is turning his bloc's lead into a workable government. For Eisenkot, it is finding a viable path to a majority despite the opposition's fragmented position.
The final outcome will depend on negotiations, political compromises, and the distribution of parliamentary support—not simply on which bloc finishes ahead.
Netanyahu has a path to remain in power, but the election has not secured his political future. As coalition talks approach, Israel faces a decisive test that could shape its domestic politics, regional security policies, and relationship with Washington for years to come.
